The Tiger

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KL, Malaysia
I am a tiger in the game of stock trading. I relentlessly looking for candidates to trade. When it is an inflection point. You would see i am actively participate in the game.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

FOMC leaves rates unchanged and expects to keep them there for an extended period

A weaker dollar helped put stocks in higher ground in the early going, but broader market support faded in the wake of the latest statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Early gains were broad based as the dollar dipped as much as 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies in the early going. The Nasdaq was even able to log a fresh 52-week high.

However, support for stocks started to fade ahead of the latest FOMC directive and then buckled in the report's wake.

The FOMC stated that economic activity has continued to pick up and that deterioration in the labor market is abating. The FOMC also expressed that conditions in the financial markets are improving, so some of the Fed's special liquidity facilities will soon end as planned.

More notably, the FOMC indicated that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain at 0.00% to 0.25% and that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The overall language in the statement is consistent with previous statements, so it helped calm concerns that the Fed may look to raise interest rates sooner than later.

Intention

This blog was created for the intention to guide the new comers. However, i am busy in some other blogs which i currently engage on.

But, just to update all of you. I am not teaching and holding any seminar for now.

but, i am working on new projects ...and i am working for someone now. Cool like?
I am enjoying the working life. but, no worry, i will be back conducting workshop in the future, but not in the near term though. so, stay put and good luck.

Don't rush...money is all over the place.

Long time ago

Its been long time i didn't log in into this blog...umm, cause i am working on other blogs now. A small project which i long for. Hehe... lets see.

Good luck

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Have a good weekend

Wondering what will be the next move for the market?...will update later

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Next earnings release

AAPL April 22th after market, unconfirmed
IBM April 20th after market, unconfirmed
RIMM April 02nd after market, Confirmed
DELL MAY 28th after market, unconfirmed
EMC April 22th before market,confirmed

Today's IPO

Changyou.com CYOU 7.5 M shares initial priced at 16.

Lead Underwriter: Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch Co-managers: Citigroup, Susquehanna Financial

Description: Chinese online game developer and operator

Mark-to-market change might be nonevent for stocks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Mark-market-change-might-nonevent/story.aspx?guid={7A42F9A1-C1FD-4587-AF9E-C6E7DCC80406}

source from market watch
Some of the article i put here is worth reading...and paste here is for record purposes as well, this might come handy when needed for reference.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)
-- For weeks, investors have been expecting regulators to change accounting rules that would allow banks to recoup some losses already taken on illiquid mortgage assets, making Thursday's official decision by the Financial Accounting Standards Board almost a nonevent, analysts said.
But those high expectations are setting the market up for a big disappointment if rule makers actually balk at making changes.
"There might be a little bit of a positive reaction, but the move in stocks has already taken place as regulators already said they were considering changing the rule back in early March," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.
But "in the event they recommend no changes, we could see a sell-off," Dickson said.

The accounting board, known as FASB, is scheduled to vote Thursday on giving auditors more flexibility in valuing illiquid mortgage assets that may have a long-term value and strong cash flow. In other words, they are not distressed assets, but they cannot be sold in the markets today.
The change in the rule is expected to be retroactive, giving bankers the ability to revalue some assets in time for the first-quarter reporting season, which starts this month.
The change would also give banks a break from pressures to raise capital. As banks wrote down trillions of bad assets over the past two years, many were forced to seek additional capital. For some of the biggest financial institutions, that capital has had to come from the government to prevent them from going bust.
Doubt remains
Besides the positive impact on capital pressures, the likely boost to banks' first-quarter earnings, there remains a considerable amount of doubt among market participants about the effectiveness of changing accounting rules.
"To start with, it's a little confusing from a policy standpoint," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. equities at Deutsche Bank.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month provided details of his plan to encourage private investors, backed by public money, to purchase some of the bad assets plaguing the banks' balance sheets.
"But if the new rules can allow them to price these assets higher, they won't have as much of an incentive to sell them and therefore it doesn't make complete sense with Geithner's plans," Fitzpatrick said. End of Story
Nick Godt is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

Economy contracting at slower pace, no bottom yet

New economic reports on construction spending, manufacturing and pending home sales suggest the recession may be moving closer to a bottom.
But most analysts think the low point is still months away, with more bad news likely before the economy stabilizes and begins to rebound.

"I think the best that can be said right now is that the pace of decline has slowed, but we are still heading down," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "Any recovery is still a work in progress."

Wyss predicted that the recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, will last until September. But he said the decline in the gross domestic product in the current April-June quarter will probably be just half the 6.3 percent drop that was recorded in the final three months of last year.

The manufacturing report, based on a poll of the Tempe, Ariz.-based trade group of purchasing executives, covers indicators including new orders, production, employment, inventories and prices. None of the 18 manufacturing industries grew in March, and new jobs are unlikely before next year.

Inventories will need at least three more months to fall to healthy levels. When that happens, new orders could rebound "and then it's a number of months before you see any improvement in employment," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM manufacturing survey committee.

"It's going to be long, and it's going to be slow," Ore said.

The Commerce Department report showed nonresidential construction rose 0.3 percent in February. That was a slight rebound after a 4.3 percent drop in January that had been the biggest decline in 15 years.

With the financial sector facing its worst crisis in seven decades, banks have tightened their loan standards, making it harder to get financing for shopping centers and other commercial projects.

Analysts are forecasting that the commercial real estate industry is poised to fall into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s. Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or close.

Construction spending by the government showed a 0.8 percent increase in February after two months of declines. All the changes left total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $967.5 billion in February, the slowest pace since March 2004.

source from yahoo finance

Reverse?

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

March ISM trade

March ISM Index-Manufacturing index shows contraction in March



Manufacturing index contracts for 14th straight month; pace of decline slower than expected

A trade group's measure of the health of the manufacturing sector contracted for the 14th straight month in March, but at a slower pace than expected and a handful of industries expect to benefit from the government's economic stimulus measures.

The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday its manufacturing index rose to 36.3 last month from 35.8 in February. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the index to rise to 36.

A reading below 50 signals contraction. The index hit a 28-year low of 32.9 in December.

The report, based on a poll of the Tempe, Ariz.-based trade group of purchasing executives, covers indicators including new orders, production, employment, inventories, prices, and export and import orders.

The report said declines in new orders and employment persisted, but slowed a bit. Still, none of the 18 manufacturing industries grew in March.

But the report did say that five of the industries surveyed, including electrical equipment, primary metals and machinery -- expect to gain from the government's economic stimulus measures.

"The rapid decline in manufacturing appears to have moderated somewhat," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM manufacturing survey committee.

New orders rose to 41.2 -- the first reading above 40 in seven months. Six industries, including computer and electronic products, said orders grew.

But the rising demand for products didn't translate into more jobs. The employment index inched off its record low of 26.1 in February to 28.1 percent in March. None of the 18 industry sectors said their labor forces grew.

AAPL reached yesterday high




bought 10 put

Construction spending falls for 5th straight month




Construction spending fell for a fifth straight month in February as another big drop in home building offset a slight rebound in nonresidential construction.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that February construction activity dropped 0.9 percent, less sharply than the 1.5 percent decline economists expected. Total construction has been falling since October. The level of activity is at the slowest pace in nearly five years.

The weakness in February reflected a 4.3 percent drop in housing construction, which pushed the level down to the lowest in 11 years.

Home builders have cut back sharply, but face a rising glut of unsold homes as record mortgage foreclosures dump more properties on the market. Lennar Corp. said Monday that its fiscal first-quarter losses surged 77 percent due to charges to adjust land and inventory values, and plunging home deliveries and new orders.

The construction report showed non-residential construction rose 0.3 percent in February, a slight rebound following a 4.3 percent drop in January which had been the biggest decline in 15 years.

With the financial sector facing its worst crisis in seven decades, banks have tightened their loan standards, making it harder to get financing for shopping centers and other commercial projects.

AAPL March 31 3 minutes chart

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Stocks fall as automaker plans are rejected



Wall Street retreats after three-week rally as auto, financial industry woes weigh on market

Wall Street's big March rally was officially on hold after the White House rejected turnaround plans from General Motors Corp. and Chrysler and gave investors a reality check on the economy.

Stocks Plummet on Auto, Bank Fears; Dow Down 300




Close 70% of the position and rest now.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Small margin for today




Even though today broader market is in downtrend because investor cash out from previous rally. Some of my position is still in red and after offset all the position. I only gain a bit for today speculating.

wanted to wait till 3p.m for further observation in market sentiment and decide whether to hold overnight or not. Yet, my mind does not allow me to do it anymore....i need a rest now.

Have a great weekend.

AAPL trade



Wanted to stay in the market, yet, i am extremely exhausted already. Do not want to hold any position for this weekend. Given that G-20 Summit is coming up soon. I would like to see what happen next and confirmation from the yearly day chart first.

so, now closed all the position and have super.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Stocks Give Back Some Gains After Big Rally



Woo...sadly, i close a huge position before close yesterday....

A new interface, is pretty. I love it.

Sell off?

sell off should come anytime now despite G-20 summit meeting.
When do you think will it be? tomorrow? next week?

AAPL in resistance level...



30 minutes ahead of 7 yrs notes result. Large cap tech stocks lifted Nasdaq.
What do you get from this chart?

Thursday, March 26, 2009

TREASURIES-Hold firm in Asia, 7-year auction eyed

* Treasuries hold firm after previous day's tumble

* Focus on $24 bln 7-year note auction later in the day

* Fed's purchase programme seen offering some price support

* Five-year bonds sag after poor auction

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries held firm in most maturities on Thursday in Asia, recovering some of the previous day's losses with investors looking ahead to the last leg of this week's $98 billion in bond issuance.

The Treasury is set to auction $24 billion of seven-year notes later in the day, the second sale of the maturity since 1993 after the first auction last month.

Analysts said the market was drawing support from the Federal Reserve's debut purchase of government bonds on Wednesday. The Fed bought $7.5 billion in Treasuries maturing in the next seven to 10 years.

However, analysts also warned the market was likely to see a tug-of-war between expectations for the Fed's bond buying, and fears that investors may not have sufficient appetite for the surging debt supply to finance the ballooning U.S. deficit.

Five-year Treasury notes extended losses after a record large auction of the maturity on Wednesday was met with below-average demand, despite strong demand at an auction of two-year notes on Tuesday.

"The market has mixed sentiment. On the one hand there are expectations for the Fed's bond purchases, and on the other there are concerns about investor demand," said Yasutoshi Nagai, chief economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"The market still respects the Fed's credibility, so yields are likely to be kept low," he said.

The benchmark 10-year note rose 5/32 in price to yield 2.781 percent, down about 2 basis points from late U.S. trade.

The 10-year yield climbed to its highest point since last Wednesday, when the Fed's surprise announcement of its purchase programme triggered the biggest one-day drop in yields in more than two decades.

The seven-year note edged up 2/32 in price to yield 2.337 percent, down 1 basis point.

The five-year note fell 22/32 in price to yield 1.846 percent, up 3 basis points.

Concern over burgeoning Treasury issuance to fund the government's costly stimulus package and bailout programmes came to the forefront early on Wednesday, after Britain suffered its first failed government bond auction since 2002. [ID:nLP456926]

But analysts said the incident did not have a lasting impact on the bond market, while the spike in New Zealand yields was also having little influence on U.S. Treasuries.

sources from reuters,Editing by Chris Gallagher

Dow 2 days 5 minutes chart


Click to enlarge

A batch of better-than-expected economic data induced broad-based buying for the first part of the session, but the upbeat tone fell apart as stocks pushed through intraday support levels and a Treasury auction produced disappointing results. However, an underlying bid emerged late in the session, setting off a rally in the last few minutes of trading.

The latest durable goods orders data and new home sales figures both turned out to be better than expected.

February durable goods orders increased 3.4%, marking the first time in six months that orders increased. Excluding transportation, orders increased 3.9%. Economists expected respective declines of 2.5% and 2.0%.

February new home sales increased 4.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 337,000. Economists predicted a 2.9% decline.

The afternoon's selling effort gained momentum after the S&P 500 failed to find support at the 818 level, which had provided intraday support in the early going. Selling intensified after weak demand for a government auction of 5-year Treasuries led to a jump in yields. The disappointing auction followed an auction of Gilts, or British debt securities, by the United Kingdom that failed to attract enough buyers.

The weak auctions suggest investor appetite for government debt carrying low interest rates is waning, which will bring future auctions into closer focus. As such, tomorrow's auction of 7-year notes now has a much higher level of importance.

Sellers took the stock market to a loss of 1.8%, but a late, broad-based rally effort helped stocks close the session with a solid gain.

source from yahoo and google

Feb durable goods

Tech reverse today



I couldn't deny that i love it.

Economic data

initial claims, Q4 GDP, GDP price index will be release tomorrow
Due to the possibility of slower worsening rate for these data, i am thinking of offload some of the put options before market close and only enter again after these data release.

AAPL reversal signal?



How should i we take advantage from it?
What is my plan?
What is the risk?

Looks like it is...one more day for confirmation.

AAPL retreat



It is happening now....woo, u like it?

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

AAPL trading in low volume



AAPL in its 6 month high range, around the resistance. Given the current upbeat broader market due to the better economic data from housing stat, durable goods sales and 1 trillion from FED to buy treasuries.
The market is possible in the process of building up its bottom and pick up again. Yet with the short term high resistance with low volume in a upbeat news. This is indicating that synergy is currently not in the market at the moment. Possible short-term retreat is about to come.

Market summary



Click to enlarge

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Obama in the interview with CBS

Sources from yahoo finance

In the interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Obama made clear he was standing behind beleaguered Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who was roundly criticized over the bonus flap and steps to revive the economy.

Obama said that if Geithner offered his resignation, the answer would be, "Sorry buddy, you've still got the job." CBS released excerpts Saturday.

Obama noted that corporate executives would better understand the public's outrage over bonuses if they ventured out of New York and spent time in Iowa or Arkansas. There, he said, people are thrilled to be making $75,000 a year with no bonuses.

Still, Obama said ordinary Americans are more concerned about having a paycheck and being able to pay college or medical bills than they are about "the news of the day in Washington."

Those are the concerns, he said, that he addresses in his budget, which he calls an economic blueprint for the future. It is "a vision of America where growth is not based on real estate bubbles or over-leveraged banks, but on a firm foundation of investments in energy, education and health care that will lead to a real and lasting prosperity," Obama said Saturday.

Being heard above the din may prove difficult. Lawmakers are wrangling over taxing people who got big bonuses and worrying the president's budget could generate $9.3 trillion in red ink over the next decade.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Investors await Bernake speech

Stocks move in narrow range as investors set aside the inflation concerns and await bernake speech at 12.00 E.T.

The Fed has showed its efforts to revive the market by announcing its plan to buy treasuries notes. The market initially reacted positively on the move yet pull back Thursday over the worries of inflation.

Bernanke will be speaking on the financial crisis a bank convention in Phoenix. The speech is set for noon EDT.

In midday trading, the Dow is up 13 points at 7,414. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 2 at 782, while the Nasdaq composite index is down 2 at 1,482.

Wall Street turns lower after unemployment report

SOURCES FROM YAHOO FINANCE

Thursday March 19, 12:45 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard and Sara Lepro, AP Business Writers
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street turned lower Thursday after a report on jobless claims gave mixed messages about the state of the economy.

Stocks rose early on, but a decline in financial shares pushed the market lower in early afternoon trading.

Another increase in people receiving jobless benefits dented the market's recent burst of confidence, which has driven the Dow Jones industrial average up 14 percent over the past seven days.

Investors had initially cheered another part of the employment report, which showed the number of new initial claims for jobless benefits decreasing last week.
In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 88.57, or 1.2 percent, to 7,398.01.

The number of initial requests for unemployment insurance last week dropped to a seasonally adjusted 646,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 658,000, which exceeded economists' estimates. But the number of people continuing to receive benefits set a new record for the eighth straight week, jumping 185,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.47 million.

Analysts saw Thursday's decline as a slight pause to the enthusiastic buying that has marked the advance that began last week.

"We've had a lot of very positive news that I believe has caught a lot of people by surprise," said Kent Engelke, managing director at Capital Securities Management in Glen Allen, Va.

Stock and bonds both surged on Wednesday following news that the Federal Reserve would pump more than $1 trillion into the economy by buying Treasury bonds and increasing its purchases of mortgage-backed debt securities.

The intended effect of the actions is to break a logjam in lending and lower interest rates, making it less expensive for consumers to borrow for everything from homes to cars to credit cards.

But analysts said some of Thursday's decline could be attributed to investors assessing just how effective the moves will be.

"Yesterday was viewed as a positive," said Todd Salamone, senior vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "But there was still some debate as to whether the move was bold enough and what the implications are down the road, the unintended consequences. That debate could be causing some hesitation."

One of those possible consequences is the potential for runaway inflation, Salamone said.

Market summary

Nasdaq Composite top holding

Nasdaq industry break down

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Swing trader, would you go for this?



AAPL 6 months weekly bar.
How would you enter it? Given the current situation, a possible bear market rally and resistance level...which side would you go for?
fundamental or technical?
by the way, its been 5 day rally already.

Will this resistance hold strong?



Today's AAPL 6 months daily chart

USD vs CND

During the financial crisis, smart wealthy man are earnings

When the financial crisis hit, most people focus on bad news, and thus their net worth follow the market free fall. Yet, that is a group of smart people below here are seizing this opportunity to boost their net worth.

Which group are we belong to?
It is a matter of choice,right?

John Arnold


John Arnold
Net worth 2.7 billion
Increase by 1.2 billion

Patrick Soon-Shiong


Patrick Soon-Shiong
Net worth 5.5 billion
Increase by 2 billion

George Soros


George Soros
Net worth 11 billion
Increase by 2 billion

Tadashi Yanai and family


Tadashi Yanai and family
Net worth 6 billion
Increase by 2.4 billion

James Simons


James Simons
Net worth 8 billion
Increase by 2.5 billion

John Paulson


JohnPaulson
Net worth 6 billion
Increase by 3 billion

Michael Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg
Net worth 16 billion USD
increase by 4.5 billion

Zila chart


How if you buy and hold for this stock?

Zila profile


Zila, Inc., a diagnostic company, engages in the prevention, detection, and treatment of oral cancer and periodontal disease. It manufactures and markets ViziLite Plus with TBlue, its flagship product, for early detection of oral abnormalities that could lead to cancer. In addition, the company designs, manufactures, and markets a suite of proprietary products directly to dental professionals for periodontal disease, including the Rotadent Professional Powered Brush, the Pro-Select Platinum ultrasonic scaler, and a portfolio of oral pharmaceutical products for in-office and home-care use. Further, it had certain technology rights, and the United States and foreign patent rights related to the OraTest, an oral cancer diagnostic product. Zila, Inc. markets and sells its products in the United States and Canada through direct sales force, and internationally through third party distributors. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.


Zila, Inc.
16430 North Scottsdale Road
Suite 450
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
United States
Phone: 602-266-6700
Fax: 602-234-2264

Zila might file Chapter 11 after cutting costs

Zila's worsening financial situation might force the company to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, despite a number of cost-saving measuAdd Imageres, according to financial statements filed March 17.

Despite cost-reduction strategies, the company’s revenue and cash continue to decline, according to its quarterly filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Scottsdale-based Zila’s cash and cash equivalents dropped to $2.5 million as of Jan. 31, compared with $3.2 million on Oct. 31 and $4.5 million on July 31.

“In order to continue as a going concern and fund our current level of operations over the next 12 months, we will require additional funds and need to restructure our senior secured convertible notes,” the company stated in its filing.

Fed launches bold $1.2T effort to revive economy

After Fed announced this plan, it enticed buyers to enter the bidding process and push stocks markedly higher. Financial stocks were red hot and provide leadership to the broader market.
Target fed fund lending rate was as expected to be maintain within the range 0.00%-0.25%. This exceptionally low range would be expected to be extended longer.
For the next 6 months, the Fed will buy 300 billion treasuries. The 10 years notes surges after the news and finished almost 4 points higher, pushing its yield down to a two-month low 2.55%.

AAPL reaction @ FOMC Policy Statement


A Volatie session before and after the latest FOMC policy statement release. Volume spiked sharply after the released.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasurys-rebound-after-previous-sessions/story.aspx?guid={119E383C-2643-419E-BD93-8A033AEE9BED}

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Initial claims to be release tomorrow @ 8.30a.m


New claims for unemployment are at recessionary levels, as the financial crisis on Wall Street spilled over to Main Street in noticeable fashion with the seizing up of the credit markets in late summer/early fall 2008

AAPL trade in range bound, How long will it last?


AAPL is in range bound for almost 5 months. Would it break through the resistance in these few days? Given that the recent economic data is much stabilize and investors are more ready for bad news in this bear market rally?
FOMC policy statement will be release later this afternoon and initial claim will be release tomorrow. How will the market respond if the report is not as worse as anticipate?