DOW 30 SMA 200 as resistance

DOW 30 currently retreat from SMA 200 after few weeks of rally. During these few weeks, i was totally detach from the market as i was looking for "exact" sideway which indicate possibility of market retreat, so it is a battle between my biological clock and the market "clock". Hence i was not really in the market for day trading, however, i do involve in some longer term trade.

SMA200 is a good resistance in this case.

ENDP & JASO

These two counters are today's play.
If today inflection point happen, i think this would be a good play.
Even if it is not a bear market today, look at the chart for these two, we could see that these two stocks did not do well even at yesterday's rally.
So, attention should be pay in these counters.

Despite all these, the doji and bearish signal should be a good sign.

April17 Revarsal

It is only two candidates for today. Yesterday was a Super bullish day because of...

1.Several companies top earnings estimates, including Intel, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo

2.CPI in-line with expectations; above the Fed's comfort levels, but better than feared

3.March industrial production unexpectedly rose; good sign for manufacturing stocks

4.Housing starts & building permits fall to lowest level since 1991; market shrugs off data

I am sure that everything goes up will ultimately go down. It is just a matter of time. So, if anything happen(any bad news or no news) might as well trigger the market goes down.

We are just waiting for that and place our order.

*No news, still go down? Yes, it might cause by lack of confidence and investors choose to take profit.

April16 Revarsal

Today's premarket is so bullish.
As in the candidates that i search for also shrink by numbers and it is all up in the pre-market session.

3 scenario will happen:
1. It will all the way up and do not retreat.
2. It is bullish at the first session and then retreat back and break through yesterday's low. This is exactly what we are witting for, the inflection point.
3. But we do not rule out that it might break through yesterday's low and push back to the session high. So, profit taking and stop possition should examine before enter the market.

Particularly, PDE is a doji here, looking for more confirmation.
and AU is evening star formed, so i am looking for its yesterday's low level to be break through.

I am very excited to find out these two counters.

AAPL with SMA 120

AAPL tested the 120 days moving average(SMA 120) for several time and SMA120 is acting as resistance at this time.

Looking at few days back, we see that AAPL formed a doji bar just right at the SMA 120, which mean uncertainty and it did retreat back.

Moving average is frequently used showing the average value of a stock's price over a period. Moving averages are generally used to measure identify direction of the stock and define the possible support and resistance area.

This is a good example of how SMA works. SMA 120 so far work well in AAPL, once AAPL touch SMA120 ,it tendency to go back up is high (as a support) or retreat back (as resistance).

We could define that AAPL is still in bearish market as long as it is below this SMA.

Generally, investor look at SMA 20, SMA50, SMA 200(Most professional use these). but, investor could choose to adjust the time frame for particular security since every security act differently.

SMA is just an indicator, it should only act as reference when comes to decision making.
At this case, AAPL, we look for uncertainty which reflect from candle stick to conform SMA as a valid support and resistance area.

April 15 revarsal

These stocks are stock that are in their uncertainty stage.
Which means, it might break through its resistance/ support level and advance after getting more fuel.

or the bull/bear might be exhausted and this is a turning point.

yes, i am looking at turning point.

How could you tap in into these stocks?

If its break through yesterday's high, it is tendency to go up further but easily exhausted if not support by volume.

If its break through yesterday's low, it is tendency to go down further.

I am particular look at candidates that go south.(just my preference)

Remember, nothing is guarantee, market is acting randomly. We can only do our best to dive along with the market. exit plan should always in place after an entry.

-Do not let ego drive you nuts--

The Secret?

There is no secret in trading.

A professional trader is who know how to manage risk. That's it.

A business man could be the tycoon in his field, but when comes to investing in stock market. Different outcomes might occur. When he is in his field he would look at every aspect of the investment in and out. but when its comes to sock investment. He might just pick it from news or rumors and result are usually disappointing.

WHY?

It is easy. If this tycoon could have really examine the underlying company as the same manner he would buy it for his business. He might as well benefited from his practice. But it is always easier said than done. People tend to go off when comes to investing in stock market.
They listen at news, tips, rumors... but do not do any research.

What kind of research you need to do?
Fundamental analysis- tell you why this stock acts the way it is now. (why?)
Technical analysis- help you to decide enter and exit point. (when? timing)

If you can tell why you invest in a particular stock and show a plan to enter and exit the market.
You are better off than just listen at tips.

-Treat investment(trading) as a business-

What is this about?

To my dear friends,

Some of you might ask what is this blog is about?

It is about Stock trading, and what is a trader looks like when they are trading(at least this reflect my habit).

I will share with you how and why i choose these stocks to trade over time and if i found interesting case, i would also post it here.

I will also post some long term play if i find something attractive, like GE after bad news hit.

In fact, there is no secret in trading(or invest), it is a system. Stick with it and do it.

First quarter earnings is coming...

This week could be consider the beginning of the first quarter earnings release.
Especially many big banks will release their earnings in this week which is over shadow the broader market.
Should it be more write-off coming up?
How investors decipher it is highly driving the market direction.
I am not sure what will happen in the future.
However, one thing that i am sure is that no matter how, it is just a day.
There is no good day or bad day for professional traders. It is just a day.

GE- Would it be a bargain now?

GE gap down by 4.70(about 12%) after reported First quarter earnings below expectations and issued disappointing outlook for 2008.

Despite all these disappointing outlook, GE is a well known established company. current price fall to 32.00. The next strong support level would be 31.00.

Would it be a good bargain for a long term investor?
Should the price fall below 31.00, we could just put a stop order at 30.80 to protect our capital.
Or just apply a covered call strategy in this case (if the stock price trading between 31-33 for 1 year, it would have generate at least 30% return for a year. Not bad for a passive investment.)

This could be a decent long term play since big player might go in to grab the company share at the bottom.
We might see this stock at the congestion period for a while before it pick up in price and volume.
If institutional players are accumulating GE shares. Should them?

But, i am not rule out that big players might test out the 31.00 support for a while before they really accumulating GE shares. So, should we pay a bit patience in this play?

April 14 Revarsal

All these candidates are near their resistance and forming series of uncertainty bar after a minor uptrend.

I believe that if it break through yesterday's low. it could be a bearish play for you.

However, always bear in mind that.
1. Never put everything down in one idea.
2. Place a stop loss order at (at least yesterday's high) and set a profit taking pount.

-Be discipline, enter and exist strategies are both important.-

MEE

Just bought it @ 4.00 and place a stop @3.00

If anything happen, i will be out with a 1.00 loss.

but will review this trade again once back from supper.

Hopefully, it is not going against me.

MEE

MEE, i find it interesting(not to say that it will go down or up but that it is something that i wanna share with my friends here)

It has a nice bull run since last AUG and few retracements since then.
Now, it is testing its 52 week high.

It is tendency that if it break through it, it will climb higher.
However, looking at the price bar and volume, it looks like the big boy out there are retreating from the market.

This make me excited about it.
(Normally, i do not touch candidate that testing 52 week high, but this time, it might be an exceptional.

I might consider to go in (just hit and run) fro a while if it break through yesterday low and it is no reversal signal coming up.

In general, this stock is in its uptrend, what we are looking at is a possible minor correction from its highs.

again, profit taking point and cut loss point should always in place before hand.

April 11 Revarsal

Again. This list is a volatile play.
It has higher probability to go down, If and only if it break through yesterday's low (and is not down for too much before you get the catch to catch the fish.).

After you place an order you should also place a cut loss point in case the stock goes against you.

-Do not bet on everything in one idea-

This play could be very volatile since some of them is in its inflection point, if it goes up and break through yeasterday's high, it might be a bull run though.

-Trader, especially options trader should handle it with care-

always always position sizing your porfolio and have an exit plan ahead of the game.

CME testing 50-days Moving average

CME is testing its 50days Moving Average.
And it have been quite a reliable measurement for this stock since OCT 2007.
Lets see what's happen next?

APL

As i review my open trade, this is one of the trade that i still hold for since three days ago.
And it is still keep going down.
I am not sure what will happen next. But, i am anticipating that this stock will keep going down for a while. So, even though i am in the money now.
I choose to hold for a while and get out when inflection point come about.

As you know, i placed a stop loss order just to protect my capital and profit.
(I hope you do the same thing in every trade and any trade)

-Do not bet on everything in one idea-

PCU- Uncertainty

This is PCU half year chart.
Yesterday, it was a volatile day for PCU. Its ups and downs within an hour and remain at the resistance level for the whole day.
After the closing bell, it form a doji bar just right at the resistance level.
If i was not sleeping, i think i would place a small order to buy put for this counter(if the risk and reward is attractive).
Otherwise, i will wait till the market open and see the real time reaction for this stock.

After all, PCU could be a quick profit earner once it beak through yesterday's low again.
A lot of strategies could be apply here.(It is just depend on who you are and how you wanna play, i hope that my options buddy could measure your own risk management and apply strategy that suit you. )

Remember, PCU might keep testing the resistance for quite some time(nobody know), we as a trader we just have to wait for the time. Just like a tiger always quietly wait for the sheep and catch it immediately once its come out.

-It is high probability that the stock would go down, but if its break its resistance level, it could go higher. (Just bear in mind)

-To my fellow professional traders, I tend to make a lots of explanation because i am afraid someone who is not equip enough to participate in this trade and do not know what to do if the trade goes against them.

After all, i do not want to have any troubles from here. Haha.

I post these articles is to share what i am doing and help amateur traders(beginner, who loss money, or profit here and loss there) to move up to the next level.

Please forgive me that i always put a long long articles here.
( i do not always though, now that i am free and passionate)

PCU - A volatile Play

PCU is one of my candidates yesterday. It break through its yesterday lows at the early session and bounce back quickly after an hour congestion.
I bought a PCU April 115 PUT@3.10 and magically the stock plummeted in the next 10 minutes by 2-3 dollars. It would be a fantastic profit if i choose to get out at that point(options price went up to 3.70, a 19% returns in just 10 minutes) . But i did not take it.
I thought that it would go down further and want to take a ride there but fortunately as a discipline trader, i practice what a professional trader should do. I place a stop loss order at 3.45 to protect my capital and preserve some of my gains.

It get triggered when i switch off my computer about 10 minutes later.

Profit 3.45-3.10= 0.35.
Returns 0.35/3.10=11.29% in 20 minutes without monitoring the screen at all time.

I gave up the 8% returns to lets the winner run BUT I PROTECT my downside and this did work for me at this case.
If not, i would have a big loss here.
The stock after all, climbed up about 2 dollars and remain at the opening level for the whole night. The last transaction option price was 2.60. Which is a 0.85 loss, 24.63% loss in one night.

I am glad that i get out before hand.

*Always protect your downside.

April 10 Revarsal

These stocks might in their support or resistance, it is more likely to move if its break its yesterday's low/high.
If it break its low, you could consider buying put and put a stop loss order at its yesterday's high.
if it break the high, then the other way around might be consider.

however, options traders should always undtrade and position sizing your trade.
This is only for refrence purposes. I also monitor this list and then observe its price movement and decide when to enter the market.
Once make, i will place a stop loss order to protect my downside.

Take care

Economic Calender

ET	Release	For	Consensus prior	Revised From
8:30	Initial Claim	Feb	383K	407K
8:30	Trade Balance	Mar	($57.4B)	($58.2B)
14:00	Treasury Budget	Mar	($47.0B)	($96.3B)

ICE

ICE become quite volatile and the slippage become so wide.
So, when the stock price goes up in 1 minute chart.
I decided not to take risk for carry overnight.
sold @ 4.00. Break-even. It had become so volatile that i could not bear the risk.
I think i made a wrong decision to buy it so early and so i decided to not stay in the game for this stock even though it is a very nice chart that it might go down a lot. But i dear not take this risk.

* Do not hesitate to withdraw your order if you do not know what to do.

The Professional trader, Micheal Marcus, reminded me that i should not leave the trade if i do not know what is best to do?
Just get out from it.

April 9 Reversal signal

This is reversal candidates for today.
If this break through yesterday's low. You could consider enter.
However, profit taking and cut loss point should have place in advance for insurance purpose.

This is just for reference purpose, risk is still bear by you buddy. So do not over trade and be discipline to wait for break out or just set a condition order.

I just put an order for ICE, Buy ICE Apr 145 Put@ market.
This conditional order bought it @ 4.00.
Now is in the money.

Let's see what will happen?

SLPS 4 days

Bought SPLS April 25 put@2.20 4 days ago.
and sold @ 3.30.
Profit 1.10. 1.10/2.20= 50% in 4 days.
Bravo!

WSM

WSM slip down further. I decided to close out position and take all the profit.

sold @3.00.
Profit 0.85, 0.85/2.15=39.53% in one day.
Awesome.

Day trade AAPL

Just made a trade , Bought AAPL APR 155 PUT@ 5.35 and sold it @ 5.70.

profit of 0.35, 0.35/5.35 =6.54% in 3 minutes.


then, just about the bottom, i bought AAPL APR 150 CALL @ 5.50 and just sold it when i am witting this post... sold @ 5.95 .Profit of 0.45 , 0.45/5.50=8.1% in 13 minutes.

and i should take a rest for today....

WSM

WSM fall by 0.30 and i sold April 27.50 @ 2.45
Profit of 0.30 and 0.30/2.15 = 13.95% return in one day.

initially, if you just look at the dollar amount. You might think that 0.30 is just a small profit. But when you translate it as in % then you know how much you earn. In fact, 12.24% in one night is a spectacular result for many.

I am happy with this return.

WSM

William Sonoma Inc (WSM)
This stock came into my radar and seem like it has high probability to go down further.
So i bought April 27.50 put @ 2.15. My objective here is just to get 10% return in these two days.
Stop loss already put in as an insurance in case the stock price goes against me.